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Dune/docs/AI_DEVELOPMENT_PLAN.md
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Quintine 8f7a62cd4c Defer AI tuning until game completion and set adjacent difficulty targets
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Keep existing AI profiles and minimal legal participation for feature testing and critical correctness fixes. Defer full AI implementation, strategic refinement and calibration until all non-AI game features are complete. Then aim for approximately 75% higher-tier wins separately for Medium/Easy, Hard/Medium and Brutal/Hard in balanced pairwise evaluations, with swapped factions/seats, independent evaluation seeds and reported uncertainty. Preserve broader multiplayer acceptance, hidden-information boundaries and human-seat pacing. Historical calibration results are not evidence of these targets.

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AI development order and difficulty targets

Updated 20 September 2026 at the user's request. This is the current development plan; the earlier calibration studies are historical results, not evidence that the new targets have been met.

Complete the game features first

Full AI implementation, strategic refinement and difficulty tuning start only after all non-AI game features are complete: Basic and Advanced rules, all twelve factions, the three expansions, applicable optional modules and interactions, multiplayer functions and the required player-facing features. Do not spend time tuning strategy against incomplete rules.

Until then, preserve existing profiles and provide only the minimal legal AI participation needed to exercise new features. Fix crashes, deadlocks, illegal actions, privacy violations and saved-continuation failures. Focused legal-action and complete-game smoke checks remain appropriate; strength studies and tuning are deferred. Working AI paths remain part of a connected feature prototype.

Tune the completed game

Finish faction/module strategy, planning, risk assessment and negotiation, then aim for these separate adjacent-pair results:

Matchup Target
Medium against Easy Medium wins approximately 75%
Hard against Medium Hard wins approximately 75%
Brutal against Hard Brutal wins approximately 75%

These are statistical targets over repeated games, not a promise for every four games or a 75% overall win rate in a table containing all four difficulties.

Use legal head-to-head configurations with balanced faction/seat assignments, swapped assignments and multiple seeds. Keep evaluation seeds separate from tuning, report sample sizes and uncertainty, and break results down by rules configuration so aggregate wins do not hide a broken matchup. Define outcome accounting before running the evaluation and report draws or shared wins explicitly. Do not treat unfinished or failed games as ordinary wins or losses.

Separately verify the completed strategies in supported two-through-six-player tables, including alliances and expansion/module combinations. Pairwise strength does not establish multiplayer competence. Preserve private information, legal resources and the authoritative rules at every level; never give higher levels unauthorized information or rule exceptions to reach a target. Retain the existing 1–2 second action pacing when AI plays a human-owned seat.

Final AI acceptance needs measured evidence for all three approximate 75% targets after feature completion, plus legal continuation across the requested scope. The current policies and old studies do not satisfy that acceptance gate.